Jan 04

How to Manage Your Investment Holdings

The uncertain condition of today’s economy is not encouraging investors. This lowered investment trend can be traced back to the past 5 years where investments have been slow with subscriptions to how to manage your investment holdings magazines taking a dip. Many investors are uneasy over investing their money into a volatile market as stocks have been plummeting in value in recent years, with small rebounds here and there, now and then. This does not give investors enough confidence although there are many investing associations that offer courses or tips on how to manage your investment holdings.

Good Monitoring of Investment
It is crucial to monitor your investments especially in this time of market uncertainty or volatility. Choosing the best investments is no guarantee of positive returns, much less huge returns, if you are not tracking the movements of your portfolio. As in any investment, there will be profits and losses; you can waste a lot of time and your hard earned money if you do not have good tracking habits or strategies such as proper record keeping. It is essential for any serious investor to review their portfolio’s performance when you are serious about how to manage your investment holdings for good returns.

There may be taxes that are incurred, retirement computations which may lead you to make further decisions on your portfolio or opportunities that come by your way to grow your wealth. There are now many online resources for your picking to assist you on how to manage your investment holdings by keeping careful records on every investment you make, be it stock, bond, mutual fund or security. Once the easy setup is done, you will only need to commit to a weekly or bi-weekly check up on the performance of your portfolio. This way, you will not be taken by surprise on any adverse news as you monitor the organizational news of your portfolio.

Online Investment Services
Online investment tracking services will update your portfolio automatically to reflect any price changes on a daily basis with a re-computation of your assets. They also assist in comparisons of your investments to your targets and the expected returns of your portfolio. These online investment services also alert the investor on potential purchases to add on to your portfolio. They may even have tips on how to manage your investment holdings that will benefit you.

Self-directed investing
This is for those who want to manage their own portfolio; those of you who might be retirees and are keen on how to manage your investment holdings can consider monitoring your own investments with a sufficient bit of basic understanding of the various investment types available for your own consideration. You will need to be familiar with tax consequences as well as investment earnings and related costs with any investment you plan to undertake.

You will need to be computer savvy if you are engaging technology in your own monitoring of your portfolio as well as be comfortable with the investment terms and conditions.

Self-directed investment requires online accounts monitoring, evaluation and understanding before an investment transaction can be performed. There may be a substantial online research required to confirm or refute financial assumptions.

Other factors
There is still a need to engage an investment company or professional broker to perform some of your trades or investments. An online broker may charge certain fees for his services. You should check out the reputation and performance of online brokers first before engaging their services.

When you get going on how to manage your investment holdings, you may need to consider it as a long term goal so that you are able to pace your time and effort on the portfolio that you are going to set up. A good investment plan is usually for the long term to enjoy its good returns. Discipline and patience are two virtues that are required when you want to manage your own investments as most stocks do not bring in huge returns in the short run. It’s a great commitment to those stocks which you think will fare well in the long run.

Jan 04

The Guts of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement

Senator Bernie Sanders voiced his disagreement to President Obama’s big trade deal. Organized labor in the U.S. argued, during the negotiations, that the trade deal would largely benefit corporations at the expense of workers in the manufacturing and service industries. The Economic Policy Institute and the Center for Economic and Policy Research have argued that the TPP could result in job losses and declining wages.

Obama was granted fast-track authority to negotiate this and other trade contracts with various countries. Obama contended that this authority was important to completing the TPP then sending it to Congress for a vote. The Senate won’t have the ability to delay the TPP and lawmakers will not be able to change it. Supporters say that the TPP would force China to increase standards and regulations.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership or TPP has become additionally politically combative with groups worried about trade contracts. The TPP is not the only one, but it is a very big one and the negotiations are complete.

It began with a trade contract between Brunei, Chile, New Zealand and Singapore that came into effect in 2006. That arrangement detached tariffs, intellectual property, and trading policies on most goods traded between the countries. The TPP has grown into a giant free trade deal between the US, Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Brunei, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Mexico, Chile and Peru. TPP wants to extend economic bonds between these nations, cutting tariffs on goods and services, and raising trade to increase growth. The 12 countries have a population of about 800 million and are accountable for 40% of the world’s GDP and 26% of the world’s trade. The deal is a notable achievement given the very different approaches and standards within the member countries mention the special protections that some countries have for certain industries. That makes it roughly the same size as the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, another trade contract currently being used. The contract could make a new single marketplace like the EU.

After too many years of American foreign policy being bogged down in the Middle East, the Obama administration is aiming its focus on Asia. The TPP is the focus of the US economic re-balancing and a stage for regional monetary integration. Some say the TPP goes further, as an effort to contain China and provide a monetary counterbalance to it in the area. Many parts of the TPP are designed to exclude China. The TPP is thought to be a strategy to keep China contained.

Most of the disapproval for the TPP has been for the mysterious consultations, in which countries were planning to be bringing in large changes for the countries’ futures without voters’ knowledge. But much of what has been exposed involves changes to intellectual property, state owned property, and international courts. The TPP, as well as other trade deals, have a wide array of regulatory and legal concerns that make the deals influential on foreign policy and US lawmaking.

Information on the TPP’s effect on intellectual property has exposed that the U.S. has been forcing tougher copyright security for music and film, as well as more comprehensive and longer-lasting patents. The TPP would also increase the difficulty of the approval procedure for generic drug makers and extend protections for biologic medicines, which has concerned members of Congress. Public health and internet groups have campaigned hard against the TPP for a long time about these matters because it may restrict public access to knowledge.

Many TPP governments basically own huge portions of their economies. Discussions have intended to limit public support for public sector businesses in order to raise competition with the private sector. But some assert it gives companies the ability to sue governments that change policy to favor public-provided services. The TPP will is also said to increase competition between nations’ work forces.

After World War II, investors were concerned about investing money in 3rd world countries, where the legal systems were not as reliable. They were concerned that an investment is made in country one day only to watch a dictator repossess it later. Enter the provision called “Investor-State Dispute Settlement,” or ISDS. The ISDS was installed in previous trade contracts, and is installed in the TPP, to encourage foreign investment in countries with weak legal systems. The ISDS could lead to huge penalties in the event that steps are taken of a country confiscating corporate assets. The ISDS provision in the TPP would also tip the balance of power in the US further in favor of huge multinational corporations and weaken U.S. autonomy.

Jan 04

Market Timing and Market Forecasting

A few decades ago, it was widely believed that the most effective way to analyze the markets for trade was to determine the fundamentals, such as the number of bushels in storage, the current demand figures, the expected harvest yield, etc. Many assumed that Technical Analysis was not useful. Reasons given were that price action is random, or that it ignores the fundamental factors of the underlying asset. The facts are quite the contrary.

Many have come to learn that the old ‘buy and hold’ strategy can be a costly one. Stories abound of those who have found the value of their portfolio has only broken even (or lost value) after holding for several years. The financial crisis of 2008 highlights one of several historical periods where investors have lost millions. While it is always a good idea to know a company’s financial health as well as their future potential in sales/profits, what may be a healthy financial statement and outlook today can look a lot different tomorrow.

Technical analysis focuses on price movement, anticipating price direction based on its ebbs and flows (ie. swings, cycles, etc.). Fundamental factors of any asset is built into price action, as the market discounts everything. In addition, history tends to repeat itself and this repetitive nature of price action can be anticipated and taken advantage of.

Many technicians rely on various indicators that help expose some aspect of historical price data for the use of timing. Where one indicator might highlight some underlying cycle pattern that could help anticipate the next trend change period, another indicator might highlight a markets overbought or oversold condition, all relative to past price action.

The technical analyst relies heavily on price charts. Certain patterns often repeat giving the technician a heads-up to a potential price break. Such patterns are given names, such as the ‘Head-and-sholders’ pattern, the ‘wedge’ or ‘flag’ formation, etc. All of these technical approaches are useful to some degree.

Precise market timing is crucial in today’s volatile markets. Without greater precision in timing, the trader is exposed to a higher degree of risk and can leave more profit on the table.

Let me illustrate this.

For the sake of discussion, suppose that the price range of each trading day is 50 points. If your allowable risk exposure (how far you will allow the market to move against your position) is 50 points, you must enter the market on the exact day you expect the move to start in your favor to avoid being stopped out with a loss. If your allowable risk exposure is 100 points, you must be accurate in your timing within +/- one day to avoid getting stopped out with a loss. This highlights the importance of precision market timing.

Now in the real world, each day the price range varies from the next. Depending on how effective your market timing approach happens to be, you may be able to risk less than the average range in points. The less precise your market timing approach happens to be, the more you should initially risk on the trade.

While market timing itself can be loosely done using standard technical indicators, trend lines and moving averages, precision market timing is achievable with good market forecasting methods. Market forecasting for market timing purposes is extremely effective because, unlike most technical indicators that are ‘leading’ or ‘lagging’ in nature, a good market forecasting method can forecast a market turn to an exact day of a trend change. Giving any market forecasting method a small deviation allowance of +/- one day can give any trader an incredible edge in predicting market turns for the purpose of precision market timing and trading.

Some traders are historical legends having used market forecasting methods for precision market timing purposes. Who has not heard of William Delbert Gann (better known as WD Gann)? This financial trader is famous for developing several technical approaches, such as the use of Gann angles or the trend indicator. His forecasting methods included the use of the Square of Nine, cycle analysis and market geometry. By using ‘market forecasting’ tools such as these and others, he is famously reported to have many times turned a small amount of money into a large amount rather quickly.

So there are two main points that I hope you have garnered by reading this article. Point #1 is that in order to better manage your risk exposure and maximize your profit potential, the more precise you need to be with your market timing approach. Point #2 is that the most precise way to time the markets is to take advantage of market forecasting techniques, where often you can time your trades to the exact day of a new move.

There are many market forecasting secrets, methods and techniques that you can learn right now to improve your market timing. Some are good, some not so good. I have spent over three decades learning, testing and discovering market forecasting approaches. When I started, there was not much available as there are today. So it has definitely seen some growth over the years and therefore you should have no problem finding the approaches that will fit your style of trading and investing.

Jan 04

Brexit and Trump Were Shocks – Here’s What’s Coming Next

It started with the Brexit vote in the UK, and then Trump’s victory in the US. These two votes sent shock waves throughout the world, as none of the political elite could ever have imagined such results could possibly happen. But they did happen, and there are plenty more shock waves to come. Over the next couple of years we will likely see many more ‘black swan’ events, promoting pro-independence, and even outright separatism movements. The curtain is being pulled back further, exposing more of the establishment status quo.

First the UK, then the US, and now the next big ‘shocks’ will come from Europe, We have just spent the past four decades living in an ‘age of entitlement‘, with governments offering handouts every election, treating its voters like heroin addicts, their motto being “just promise them more stuff, and they will be happy.” It didn’t matter which party, they all did the same thing. The problem was they didn’t have the money to pay for all these freebies, and now it’s the day of reckoning.

Those in charge have run global economies into the ground, initiating monetary policies that included creating trillions of dollars out of thin air, to even forcing negative interest rates onto consumers. They have robbed the seniors of any return on their savings, and have now jeopardized pension funds, which have now incurred massive funding gaps thanks to low rates.

What we have seen in the last year has been quite remarkable, but what’s about to happen is going to make the last couple of years seem docile. There are a number of big political events coming in Europe in the next year. The next big date is December 4th, when we have both the Italian referendum on constitutional change, and the Austrian Presidential election. With anti-EU sentiment rising throughout Europe, either one of these events could be the domino that triggers a contagion, with more dominoes falling. sending entire continent into a state of terminal socioeconomic collapse.

The European Union is at great risk of unraveling, and the potential financial repercussions are massive. Those Europeans who have converted Euro to US dollars on any Euro rally are in a very good position today. Investors need to understand the big picture on what is coming in the global economy. Once you have the big picture, then devise strategies on how to profit from it.

The number one priority is to protect our wealth. Many lost a fortune in the real-estate crash in 2006, and the stock market crash in 2008. We are very concerned that these same people are going to get hit extremely hard in the coming global Bond Market Crash.

You must understand that all markets are connected. When investors in Europe saw rising unemployment, and escalating violence, they didn’t want to leave all their money in that economy. They looked around and even though the US economy was not growing rapidly, it was growing. They also knew that the US dollar was the world reserve currency, and that the US equity markets were the most liquid in the world. So they started to open US dollar bank accounts, and invest in the US stock markets. Investors from Russia, China, and all over the world are doing the same thing, they are moving their capital out of perceived risky areas, into the perceived safety of the US dollar, North American real estate, and equity markets.

So while we have seen a lot of volatility in the past two years, it is nothing compared to what is coming. We are already starting to see the consequences of negative rates. Bonds are now being sold off. This is happening in government bonds and corporate bonds. This is a major trend change, one that is going to deliver massive losses to many investors.

Things are heating up and you will need to navigate through this fast approaching, massive trend change. It will impact everything in your life: your finances, your currency, your mortgage, and your ability to sleep at night. These changes will hit the currency, equity, precious metal, oil, bond, and real estate markets. If you understand what is coming, and have a concrete plan on how to nimbly maneuver your investments as each phase is triggered, that’s good. But if you do not a plan, get help before the coming tsunami of economic changes.

Jan 04

13 Futures Markets For Automated Breakout Strategies

One of the frequent questions I keep receiving is what is the complex list of markets that are suitable for automated trading strategies. Let me give you a short overview of 13 markets that I know that you can develop interesting automated trading strategies for.

US Index markets: TF, EMD, YM, ES

American index markets are my specialization and I can confirm that for all, above mentioned markets it is not so difficult to find functional and high-quality automated trading system. I think that the most simple market where you can get good results quickly is EMD. Most of the strategies working in EMD market are (with minor changes) profitable also on TF market.

On YM market, you can get strategies with small stop-loss and it definitely is a market suitable for small trading accounts. ES market can be rather challenging. Due to a high level of saturation of automated trading systems in this market, it takes quite a while to find an interesting and robust system. Still, it is not impossible, and, as a reward for your hard work, you can expect smaller stop-losses, which is making this market more suitable for small accounts.

EU Index markets: FDAX

I have quite a lot of experience with this European market. Its high volatility can bring some really nice profits, but if you are not careful enough, you can experience rather big drawdowns. In fact, it is not so difficult to create a system for FDAX market, when using time template with US trading hours (15.30-22.00). Using this time template, I have managed to create several breakout systems that can be profitably traded in this market. One of the systems I have created for FDAX market several years ago, is quite simple breakout model (my breakout models are, in general, not complicated) and it turned out that it is profitable also in US index markets and several other markets as well. Systems don’t have to be complicated to be robust, it is just necessary to be patient – as it takes some time to find simple systems that are robust.

US Bonds: US

I have never traded any of my automated trading strategies live in this market ( I specialize myself in US index markets), but creating an interesting, simple and robust automated breakout strategy can be done even in this market. I know several traders who are successfully trading US market and there is no reason to avoid it. The only challenge is to create a system with big enough avg. trade value. 1 tick in this market represents more than 30 USD, so transaction costs and slippage can have a big impact in the live equity curve. So keep that in mind.

Energies: CL, RB, NG

I have quite a lot of experience with energies as well, especially with trading CL and NG markets. To trade these markets you need a bigger trading account, they tend to be quite volatile time to time, but creating an automated breakout strategy is not so difficult. The “secret trick” here is to experiment little bit with time templates – as they can have really big impact on the final results. So again – you need to be patient little bit and don’t be afraid of experimenting.

In general, I have also quite interesting results in the RB market, but the downside of this market is really low liquidity, which is the reason why I haven’t started live trading with any of my systems.Some of my students are also experimenting with energy markets and according to some systems that I have seen, I can tell that I am not the only one who can create really robust automated breakout strategies for CL and NG markets.

Grains: Wheat, Corn

These markets can be little bit challenging for creating breakout systems and I personally have had just a partial luck when developing systems for these markets. I have managed to find a couple of models, but it requires already advanced know-how. And I have seen several successful systems for these market from my students as well.

Personally, when it comes to grain markets, I am little worried about one issue – they tend to get little bit “crazy” time to time and there can be a limit move. So, when working with these markets, the approach needs to be more sophisticated and I highly recommend to have an advanced system for risk management, that will, for example, quickly decrease the number of contracts (or turns the system of completely), as soon as the volatility increases rapidly. Luckily, the limit moves are often preceded by volatility increase, so you can predict it and react in advance. Besides this specificity, grain markets have quite an interesting potential for automated breakout strategies.

Softs: Cotton, Sugar

I must admit that I don’t have much experience with these markets. But I know that several of my students, that are using advanced know-how, were able to build interesting and robust breakout strategies even in these markets.

I was experimenting with sugar market in the beginning of my automated trading career and I think that this market gets really interesting when you decide for position trading. Position traders have, in this market, much more possibilities how to get an interesting breakout automated strategy.

In general, it is always easier to search for long trading strategies rather than short trading ones. I myself build strategies trading long and short in separate ways.

Jan 04

Why You Should Be Careful With Too Small Stop-Loss

In the past, I met several traders, that experienced live results completely different from their backtest results. The cause was a seeming triviality – too small stop-loss. Let me explain to you today, why this can be a problem, what to be aware of and how to avoid this danger. The following topic is just about those breakout strategies that are using STOP order to open a position and, at the same time, they are using too small stop-loss (this article is not about strategies using market order). What is too small stop-loss? Well, it depends on the market and the timeframe. But in general, it is a stop-loss smaller than the size of an average bar of our main timeframe. Let me give you an example – if we are using a 30-minute chart with an average bar value 250 USD, and our strategy is working with an 80 USD stop-loss, we are heading into a serious trouble. The live trading results might (and in most cases almost probably will) be totally different from those that we have from the backtest. Let’s take a look at the reason why.

This problem occurs when the stop-loss is so small, that some of the trades have entry order and stop-loss on the same bar. Let’s say we have an entry STOP order on the price 100 and also a stop-loss on the price 99. Now, imagine that the bar opens on 98.7, it goes to 100.1 and we open the long position – and the stop-loss is set up to 99. And all of this happens within the same bar – i.e. within this one bar, the entry order is activated, the position is opened and the stop-loss is set up.

Now it is important to understand why this can be potentially a dangerous problem. It is quite simple. There are several backtesting platforms which are not able to recognize, with the wrong setup or when the data resolution is not fine enough if the stop-loss was or wasn’t hit on an entry bar. In other words, there are certain situations when, in reality, the stop-loss was hit right after the position was opened, because right after the activation of the entry order, the market starts heading south. However, our backtesting platform evaluates the trade as a profitable one (from now on I will write about TradeStation as it is a platform that I primarily use). How is it possible?

Let’s continue with the demonstration of the situation described above. In this situation we can see the rising bar, i.e. the one that has a close price above open price and, at the same time, the close is close to its high.There is an assumption that the bar was raising the whole time and TradeStation assumes that the “inner” move of the bar, i.e. the way the bar was generated, was constantly rising, a straight line.

TradeStation is simply following the logic that when the bar closed close to its high, the process of generating this bar was rising. In such situation, TradeStation assumes that the bar opened on 98.7 and the price was continuously rising to 100.4. And during this time, it also activated our buy order on the price 100.

Nevertheless, this is very inaccurate and dangerous assumption. What if the bar was first rising, activated our purchase order, but then it reversed and went back down, below our stop-loss, and then started rising again to close to its high?

This is a totally realistic scenario that is happening every single day and that would result in a clear loss (right after we open the position) – and yet, TradeStation (and potentially also other software), defines the situation as if there wasn’t any correction inside the bar at all. So no stop-loss was hit and trade ended up as a profitable one. This is the root cause to major problems as in the backtest you clearly see a lot of profitable trades that, in reality, would end up as losses – and right after we start trading this strategy live, everything starts falling apart…

Protection #1

Luckily the situation isn’t so serious as it looks like and the backtesting platforms, in general, take this risk into consideration.

The first protection against this threat is simple and, to a certain level, highly efficient. TradeStation calls it LIBB (Look-Inside-Bar-Backtesting), others call it different names, like Bar Magnifier. The point is that when you turn on this feature, the program looks inside the bar to the level of the finest available data resolution (in most cases it is 1 minute), if there wasn’t any inside correction after the entry order was activated, or if there was a correction on the same bar when we entered and the stop-loss was hit.

Despite that it sounds like a great solution (which is today a standard part of most platforms), it doesn’t have to be sufficient when it comes to small stop-losses. Why? Imagine a situation when your stop-loss is 80 USD, but the average bar of your finest LIBB resolution (i.e. mostly 1 minute) is 150 USD big. In this case you are experiencing the same problem as described above, when the platform is not able to determine whether the stop-loss inside the bar was hit or not and it makes, again, just an inaccurate approximations that are driven by the above-described logic – if the bar closed closer to its low or closer to its high. In other words, you are again at the beginning and with too small stop-loss, not even LIBB will help you, and the problem still persists.

Protection #2

So, we are getting to the point when we need to go a little bit deeper to solve this problem.One of the solutions would be to use even finer data resolution – down to the tick level. But this isn’t as easy as it sounds. Firstly the tick data history is not so easily accessible, or just for a very short period. And if these data are available, they are really expensive. But even if you still purchase tick data, you need to solve several technical issues – as the tick data are usually so big, that most of the platforms won’t handle so many data, crashes or runs backtests incredibly slow (I can confirm this).

Protection #3

So we need to use much simpler solution – and that is the necessity to use reasonably big stop-loss. And what is reasonably big stop-loss? Simply use stop-loss that is at least 1.5-2x bigger than the biggest 1-minute bar on your chart. It is simple and you can avoid several problems. For example, if the biggest 1-minute bar for all your data history was 300 USD, use stop-loss at least 450 USD. Period.It is simpler and safer to get used to higher stop-losses than lying to ourselves and subsequently be surprised why such a nice backtest equity is quite the opposite of results of live trading.

Jan 04

5 Reasons Why to Add Swing Strategies to Your Portfolio

Recently, I received several questions, why an ATS trader should also spend time developing swing strategies (and not only day trading strategies). In this article, I would like to sum up the most important points why I consider it important to have swing systems in a portfolio as well.

1. Swing strategies are a great way how to diversify a portfolio

Fighting with a high correlation of strategies is quite challenging – every at least little bit advanced ATS trader knows that it is not so easy to find out low-correlated strategies to existing portfolio. I have also struggled with this issue for a long time until I have added swing strategies to my portfolio.

It makes sense – swing strategies stay in the market longer (mostly several days), so the profit distribution can be dramatically different from intraday strategies and, therefore, we can achieve lower correlation. And only the combination of intraday and swing strategies I consider to be sufficient diversification. Having only intraday strategies in a portfolio is, in a certain way limiting, as we are losing several benefits that are coming from holding positions longer.If you are still struggling with correlation, it is time to start working on swing strategies.

2. Swing strategies have bigger drawdown, but, as a matter of fact, they help you to reduce the drawdown

Beginning traders are often scared of bigger drawdowns that swing strategies often have. This is, however, just a groundless fear coming from the inability to see the bigger picture. Once you start seeing it from the broader perspective, you will find out that drawdowns of individual strategies don’t matter – what matters is the drawdown of the whole portfolio, and that can be reduced by adding low-correlated systems to your portfolio (it also makes the equity smoother). This brings us back to the first point – low correlation is important for many reasons and the more colorful portfolio you have, with low-correlated systems, the more stable equity and the lower drawdowns you will experience. Personally, I know a trader who is willing to start trading live a losing system, as long as it is low-correlated to other systems and it smoothens the equity and reduces the drawdown of the whole portfolio (yes, this is how it really works!). This is just another confirmation that focusing on a drawdown of a single strategy is just too shortsighted and you need to take the things into perspective. You should definitely experiment with swing strategies also for this reason – working on correlation and on a portfolio is something what moves us ahead and swing trading is part of it.

3. It is impossible to create a system in some markets (except for the swing strategies)

Another sound reason why to add swing strategies to your portfolio is that in some markets you won’t be able to build a daytrading strategy. This is how it is and if you won’ t add swing strategies to your portfolio, you are limiting yourself and your trading business is running just on 50%, instead of 100%.

Trading as many different markets as possible is another great way how to diversify your portfolio and another solution how to fight high-correlated systems. You need also to consider the time investment – why spending hundreds of hours in a certain market, trying to find an intraday strategy, when you can create a swing strategy for a market that is not suitable for intraday systems, in the fraction of time? From my point of view, it is really pragmatic and necessary to add them to your portfolio. In our database, we have over 400 trading systems, and over 60% of them are the swing ones.

4. Swing strategies increase considerably your average trade

Sometimes you can experience unpleasant slippage (especially when markets get really wild) and if your strategies have a low average trade, it can have rather negative impact.

With swing systems, this is not a problem any more. In most cases, you will have really high average trade and you will rarely bother with transaction costs – and that will give you more inner peace and an option to breath freely and stop worrying about things like slippage.

Here is an example of one of my systems for Natural Gas:

Symbol=@NG

TF=30M

Bundle=!MDP_dpmode-0_trailSL-0

NP(USD)=76,230.00

NoOfTrades=447.0

AvgTrade(USD)=170.54

ProfitFactor=1.52

MaxDD(USD)=10,640.00

170 USD average trade is simply so big that it can really withstand a lot and the strategy will still be profitable. One more reason why I consider important to include swing systems to your portfolio.

5. Swing strategies open lots of new possibilities

The last reason for including swing trading is basically summary of all previous ones:

Without swing strategies, you are leaving too many possibilities behind you. You are not using the world of automated trading as much as you could and you are leaving too much money on the table. The world of swing trading is worth exploring and you should dedicate some time to it. Just because you don’t need to learn much new – just a couple of small, but very important things – and the impact can be really huge.

So much for the reasons, why I consider the idea of extension of your trading horizon to swing strategies not only to be good but in many cases really essential.

Jan 04

Auto Binary Signals – A Revolutionary Trading Method

Binary options have always been hailed as an easy path for beginners into the world of trading and profits. While a simple Put/Call binary option equation is indeed simple enough, and while it’s wholly transparent as well, its strategy implications are almost infinitely convoluted. Because of the payout rates (which are in the 70-89% range), one has to win far more than half of his/her trades just to break even. What this means is that in order to be successful with binary options, one needs to find a consistent way to come out ahead. This can be accomplished through proper technical analysis, to which the fundamentals have to be added as well. Such a task obviously exceeds the abilities and means of most rookie traders.

For such traders, a proper signal service is the answer. Letting others do the bulk of the “dirty work” is the only viable path. The problem is that like the greater binary options world, the industry that has sprung up around trading signals has given birth to quite a few scams as well. What one really needs is a legitimate service, like Auto Binary Signals.

Auto Binary Signals is a truly revolutionary trading method

Compared to all other signal providers out there, Auto Binary Signals is a head and a shoulder above the rest.

Binary trading signals come in a number of different forms these days, or rather, from a number of different sources. There are good and bad signal providers. All auto trading scams are based on trading signal generation, and indeed, most auto traders do in fact carry a manual trading option too. This option is essentially a signals service, based on signals generated by the software. These are obviously bad signals. Then there are the expert alerts: these supposedly originate from flesh-and-blood traders, who are successful at what they do and who are willing to share “pointers”.

Then, we have Auto Binary Signals, which is in a class of its own.

What makes Auto Binary Signals special?

Auto Binary Signals is NOT an auto trader. It does not act upon its own signals, rather, it leaves the final decision to the trader. Also, the way it comes up with its signals is wholly transparent and easy to understand, even for beginners. What’s more, Auto Binary Signals calculates the probability of success of every one of the signals it generates and it ranks its signals based on this. To make everything even handier, it also color-codes its recommendations. This way, traders can clearly see what they’re trading, when and for how much, and they know their chances of success before they actually open the position. It is recommended that one stick to trades with a better than 85% rating.

Auto Binary Signals makes sure its users do in fact see the trading signals it generates. Every time the system spits out a signal, a window pops up and a sound alert goes off. The service works just as well on mobile phones, tablets and other mobile devices.

What is Auto Binary Signals’ most valuable feature?

Every time one places a trade, the thrill of potential profits, coupled with the expertise that goes into the move, make it all worthwhile. Ideally, every time a trade is placed and then ends up in the money (or even out of it), the trader also learns something. This learning experience is what carries the real value in the long-run. This explains why Auto Binary Signals is focused on this very aspect of the trading experience.

In addition to providing trading signals, appraising them and ranking them based on the likelihood of success, the service also offers detailed explanations about every one of these signals. There’s a “More Info” option on every trading recommendation. By clicking it, traders will open a MT4 screen, which contains the detailed analysis associated with the said signal. One couldn’t possibly wish for a better educational tool.

Why is Auto Binary Signals so efficient?

The majority of users will attest that Auto Binary Signals is indeed very good at what it does. Those who apply its recommendations properly, always boast excellent success rates. What makes it all tick though? The system uses no fewer than 5 proven and tested technical indicators to pinpoint trading opportunities. Actual signals are only generated though when all 5 of these indicators point in the same direction – so to speak. That’s the equivalent of having a signal resulting from one’s personal analysis confirmed and re-confirmed 4 consecutive times.

Conclusion

The builders of Auto Binary Signals understand that some traders are interested in trading certain assets over blindly applying all the trading signals that pop up. Therefore, they have made the filtering of their signals based a certain criteria
available as well. ABS generates plenty of signals too. It won’t have traders sitting around idly, awaiting a trading opportunity. It will have them busy, it will have them profitable, and it will educate them on the go. Those are the reasons why ABS is truly revolutionary!

Jan 04

Trading Strategies And Tips For Binary Options

Trading strategies and tips for binary options is information gathered by one who is determined, disciplined and has the drive to put a blueprint to together and follows it in detail, every time a trade is made. Rules are very important to follow when dealing with any amount of money you are trading to make a profit. Veering off your plan of action can lead to disaster. A basic outline should consist of having general knowledge of technical analysis, bankroll management, and risk management. Consider this your foundation for making trades.

1. Technical Analysis.

Knowing how to read a chart to make money, would be a good starting point, when trading binary options. Set up your chart so that it is easy on your eyes as you stream through data to make trades. Knowing how to use your indicators and oscillators could be vital tools when it comes down to placing your trade. Entry points in the market well separate anyone from a winning trade and losing trade. Any successful trader utilizes the tools in front of him.

2. Bankroll Management.

Knowing how to use manage your money is very important when trading. For example, if you deposit $1000 into your broker account, it’s safe to say you should only trade with 5% of your deposit. This comes out to be $50 a trade. Now if you like you can divide that into any amount and get more trades. For example you can do 2 trades at $25, or you can do 5 trades at $10.

3. Risk Management.

To some traders, risk in binary options is considered low. Every trader knows the rate of return on their money, if they win the trade, and if they lose a trade, they know what is lost, at the striking price. This may not be the case when you are making a trade on an upward trend that is for sure in the money, and at the last seconds, reverses and you miss out on your profit by one pip. We have all experienced this, and it raises the risk because it wasn’t suppose to happen. Entry points are very important and must be practiced repeatedly to reduce the risk and increase your chances for winning more trades.

Learning trading strategies and tips for trading binary options could be beneficial for anyone who is willing to be a successful trader. This does not happen over night. Putting in the time is inevitable. If it were easy, everyone would be doing it and making money.

Jan 04

Preparing for the New Trump Economy

Well, now that that’s over with, where to next?

Truthfully, I’m disappointed the Fed raised interest rates last week. I expected as much, though I saw reasons why a rate hike would be ill-advised and should have been avoided.

There are simply too many deleterious impacts on massively indebted U.S. consumers, American multinational companies slammed by the strengthening dollar and emerging market economies that have taken on trillions in dollar-denominated debt that’s getting more and more costly. Those impacts will come home to roost soon enough…

Now we’re supposedly on the march toward three more rate hikes in 2017. Maybe – though doubtful. But we shall see.

The stock market certainly got what it thought it wanted, then promptly went nowhere.

Bonds flagged.

The dollar rallied.

Cheerleaders claim we’re on the road to even higher stock prices – never mind that rising interest rates have historically meant falling stock market valuations (more on that in an upcoming dispatch).

But we’re still left with the question: Where to next?

I have an idea, and you’ll want to own commodities if I’m right.

Having bullied Yellen for a rate hike, Wall Street is now waiting for the Day After – January 21. It will be like no other day after a presidential inauguration in modern history.

So many promises/threats are waiting to either unfold or fizzle. Which Donald Trump will show up to his first day on the job? Wall Street’s directional future depends on that answer.

The Threat of Stagflation

If Candidate Trump arrives, then we have economic challenges that will torment the market.

Immigrants who make up a goodly portion of the service-sector workforce will be rounded up and summarily dispatched back to their homelands – a massive disruption to restaurant back-of-house operations, the construction industry, agriculture, hoteling, landscape companies, etc. That’s inflationary and a significant brake on economic growth.

Chinese manufacturers/exporters face stiff tariffs as Candidate Trump executes his belief that China is manipulating its currency. That, too, is inflationary and will see China lash out with similar tariffs that hit U.S. exporters, leading to layoffs here at home.

U.S. companies also face punitive measures for trying to remain competitive globally by opening production facilities overseas (made all the more important because of the anti-competitive impacts of the strong dollar). That will hit corporate profit margins and lead to declining stock prices and job losses at home.

Meanwhile, infrastructure spending combined with proposed tax cuts means a fresh round of hell for budget deficits and America’s debt. That’s stagflationary because the rising cost of government debt payments takes productive capital out of the economy, while infrastructure projects dump money into the economy which will be chasing goods and services – i.e., rising demand (which will be happening even as all the other inflationary moves unfold).

So, Candidate Trump arriving to work on Day One could present quite the problem for stocks and bonds, since inflation erodes corporate profits and the value of current bond yields.

A More Moderate Approach

If Presidential Trump shows up, we have a slightly brighter path to tomorrow – though economic challenges still exist.

Presidential Trump will not provoke a trade war, saving America from another losing battle, while limiting inflationary stresses at home and saving U.S. multinationals from the pain of rapid profit deterioration (nearly half the S&P 500’s sales and profits come from overseas).

Nor will Presidential Trump deport 11 million illegal immigrants starting on the Day After, preventing mass pain across service-sector industries, inside American wallets and across the broad economy in general.

Nor will he impose punitive measures on American companies that are desperate to remain competitive in a modern global economy. That will preserve corporate profits and limit the impact on stock prices.

Presidential Trump will, however, pursue his infrastructure spending plan, no matter what. And that will be inflationary… which means it’s time to add “hard commodities” to your portfolio – and, in particular, industrial commodities, or “base metals,” as they’re called, such as copper, nickel, aluminum and whatnot.

The Winner for 2017…

Inflation will drive the price of commodities higher, as will increasing demand which will stem from U.S. infrastructure spending, since new roads and bridges and airports and whatever project is on the docket require an abundance of industrial metals.

One of the single best hard commodity opportunities for 2017 is the PowerShares Deutsche Bank Base Metals ETF (NYSE Arca: DBB), an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that, among its peers, has the best track record over the last five years.

This particular ETF is tied to copper, zinc and aluminum, and its returns are based on the performance of futures contracts in those three metals. As a way to gain basic exposure to rising prices for some of the most widely used base metals, this fund is fine.

As with all such hard commodity ETFs, however, the returns are impacted by the fund’s continual need to roll over the futures contracts it owns from one month to the next.

So that’s where we stand – Wall Street waiting to see which Donald Trump shows up. But whichever one it is, it’s a Trump who’s likely to be quite the tailwind for commodity investments.

Older posts «